Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.
翻译:以模拟为基础的推断的神经外观估计方法可能不适合处理以多重观察为条件的后部分布,因为这些方法往往需要大量的模拟器来学习准确近似值。相反,神经上隐性动动画方法可以在从个别观察中学习推论时间处理多重观测,但它们依赖标准推论方法,如MCMC或变化推论,这些方法伴随着某些性能缺陷。我们引入了基于有条件分数模型的新方法,该方法享有两种方法的效益。我们模拟了个人观察所引出的(受困)后部分布的分数,并引入了将所学分数与目标后部分布的大约样本相结合的方法。我们的方法是样本效率高的,可以自然地在推论时间将多重观察汇总在一起,避免标准推论方法的倒退。