Balancing Specialization and Adaptation in a Transforming Scientific Landscape

How scientists navigate between the need to capitalize on their prior knowledge by specializing, and the urge to adapt to evolving research opportunities? Drawing from diverse perspectives on adaptation, in particular from institutional change and cultural evolution, this paper proposes a Bayesian model of the evolution of scientists' research portfolios in response to transformations in their field. The model relies on scientific abstracts and authorship data to evaluate the influence of intellectual, social, and institutional resources on scientists' trajectories within a cohort of $2\,195$ high-energy physicists between 2000 and 2019. The reallocation of research efforts in response to the incentives to adapt is shown to be mainly structured by learning costs, thus maximizing the utility of the scientific capital disseminated among scientists. Two dimensions of social capital, namely ``diversity'' and ``power'', have opposite effects on the magnitude of change in scientists' research interests: while ``diversity'' disrupts and expands research interests, ``power'' stabilizes physicists' research agendas -- as does institutional stability. Social capital plays a more crucial role in shifts between cognitively distant research areas.