Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both these forms of reasoning has, until now, been lacking. We offer a solution in the form of (structural) causal games, which can be seen as extending Pearl's causal hierarchy to the game-theoretic domain, or as extending Koller and Milch's multi-agent influence diagrams to the causal domain. We then consider three key questions: i) How can the (causal) dependencies in games - either between variables, or between strategies - be modelled in a uniform, principled manner? ii) How may causal queries be computed in causal games, and what assumptions does this require? iii) How do causal games compare to existing formalisms? To address question i), we introduce mechanised games, which encode dependencies between agents' decision rules and the distributions governing the game. In response to question ii), we present definitions of predictions, interventions, and counterfactuals, and discuss the assumptions required for each. Regarding question iii), we describe correspondences between causal games and other formalisms, and explain how causal games can be used to answer queries that other causal or game-theoretic models do not support. Finally, we highlight possible applications of causal games, aided by an extensive open-source Python library.
翻译:原因推理和游戏理论推理是人工智能、许多其他学科的基本主题:本文关心的是它们之间的交叉点。 尽管它们的重要性, 支持这两种推理形式的正式框架至今一直缺乏。 我们以(结构性)因果游戏的形式提供了一个解决方案, 它可以被视为将珍珠的因果等级延伸至游戏理论领域, 或者将科尔勒和米尔奇的多试剂影响图扩展至因果领域。 然后我们考虑三个关键问题: (一) 游戏中的(因果)依赖性, 无论是变量之间的还是战略之间的依赖性, 如何以统一、有原则的方式模拟? (二) 如何在因果游戏中计算因果问题, 以及这种假设需要什么样的假设? (三) 因果关系游戏如何与现有的形式主义相比较? 为了回答问题一, 我们引入机械化的游戏, 将代理人的决定规则与游戏的分布相依附于因果领域。 (二) 我们提出预测、 干预、 反事实, 以及各种策略之间的依赖性, 如何以统一、有原则的方式模拟? (三) 如何在因果游戏中计算, 如何用其它的因果游戏的答案来解释。