Determining causal effects of temporal multi-intervention assists decision-making. Restricted by time-varying bias, selection bias, and interactions of multiple interventions, the disentanglement and estimation of multiple treatment effects from individual temporal data is still rare. To tackle these challenges, we propose a comprehensive framework of temporal counterfactual forecasting from an individual multiple treatment perspective (TCFimt). TCFimt constructs adversarial tasks in a seq2seq framework to alleviate selection and time-varying bias and designs a contrastive learning-based block to decouple a mixed treatment effect into separated main treatment effects and causal interactions which further improves estimation accuracy. Through implementing experiments on two real-world datasets from distinct fields, the proposed method shows satisfactory performance in predicting future outcomes with specific treatments and in choosing optimal treatment type and timing than state-of-the-art methods.
翻译:确定时间-多重干预的因果关系有助于决策。受时间变化偏见、选择偏差和多重干预相互作用的限制,个别时间数据对多重治疗影响的分解和估计仍然很少。为了应对这些挑战,我们提议从个别多重治疗的角度(TCFimt)建立一个全面的时间反事实预测框架。TCFimt在后继2eq框架内构建了对抗性任务,以缓解选择和时间变化偏差,并设计一个对比式学习块,将混合治疗效应与分离的主要治疗效应和因果关系脱钩,从而进一步提高估计准确性。通过对不同领域的两个真实世界数据集进行实验,拟议方法表明在预测特定治疗的未来结果以及选择比最新方法的最佳治疗类型和时间方面业绩令人满意。