空间目标碰撞概率计算新方法研究

项目名称： 空间目标碰撞概率计算新方法研究

项目编号： No.11203085

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 许晓丽

作者单位： 中国科学院紫金山天文台

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 随着人类航天活动和空间碎片数量的日渐增多，针对人造卫星的碰撞预警工作极为重 要，目前采用的碰撞概率计算的一般方法是将其转化为交会平面内概率密度函数在圆域内的2 维积分。本项目从交会发生的几何条件和轨道特征出发，建立一种计算碰撞概率的新方法，该方法将空间目标碰撞概率计算分解为径向方向轨道高度差引起的概率和由过交线的时间差引起的概率，通过交会事例验证该方法的有效性、评估其计算精度，该研究还包括各交会参量对概率计算的影响、与一般方法进行比较、新方法的优势和特点等。项目的研究成果将为我国空间目标碰撞预警系统的发展和完善提供新思路，可能为航天活动发射过程及日常的空间碎片监测预警提供更加有效的判据。

中文关键词： 空间碎片；碰撞概率；轨道误差；；

英文摘要： With more and more space debris and aerospace activities, the establishment of the collision warning system has become much more important. At present, the avoidance maneuver for spacecrafts has mainly been based on a predicted collision probability, which is calculated by a 2-dimensional integration of probability density function on the encounter plane. This program will propose a new method to obtain collision probability. Based on geometric conditions and orbital features of encounters, collision probability is breaked up into radial probability caused by orbital altitude differences and probability caused by time differences passing orbital intersection. Encounter cases are used to test the validity and precison of this method.This program will also include effects of encounter parameters on collision probabilities, comparation with traditional method and analysis about the advantages of the new method. The scientific results maybe contribute to the development of our country's collision warning system and provide a more effective criterion for space debris monitoring and warning.

英文关键词： Space debris；Collision probability；Orbit error；；