稀疏数据条件下空间碎片精密轨道确定与预报的有关理论和方法研究

项目名称： 稀疏数据条件下空间碎片精密轨道确定与预报的有关理论和方法研究

项目编号： No.41474024

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 桑吉章

作者单位： 武汉大学

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： NORAD空间目标数据库编目的公开目标约有一万七千个，占总数两万三千的74%，其直径大都大于10厘米。大于1厘米的碎片估计在五十万以上。空间碎片已对空间应用造成了事实威胁。自2009年2月发生33号铱星与Kosmos 2251碰撞以后，碎片的精密轨道确定/预报以提供可靠的空间碰撞预警已成为空间领域的紧迫研究课题。碎片精密轨道确定/预报面临三个显著困难：观测数据稀少、弹道系数或面质比参数未知及大气质量密度模型精度不足。此外，现行碎片轨道预报误差传播存在一些理论缺陷。本项目将在近年工作的基础上，深入研究实现碎片精密轨道确定/预报的有关理论和方法。内容包括稀疏数据数量、分布及质量与轨道确定/预报精度的关系；碎片弹道系数和面质比参数的精密估计方法；轨道预报误差传播的理论与方法。将研发完整的空间碎片轨道确定与预报软件系统。本研究将把大地测量理论扩展至空间态势感知研究的领域，具有较大的理论与实用意义。

中文关键词： 空间碎片；轨道确定和预报；稀疏数据；二行参数；轨道误差传播

英文摘要： There are about 17,000 unclassified Earth orbiting objects in the NORAD catalogue, about 74% of 23,000 objects in total. These objects are mostly larger than 10cm in diameter. It is estimated there are more than 500,000 space debris larger than 1cm in diameter, which pose realistic threats to space applications. Since the space collision between Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 in February 2009, the research on the accurate orbit determination and prediction for debris objects, which are required for the reliable space conjunction warning, has been an urgent issue in the areas of space geodesy and astrodynamics. Three prominent problems hinder the accurate debris orbit determination and prediction: sparse tracking data, unknown ballistic coefficients and area-to-mass ratios, and inaccurate atmospheric mass density models. In addition, the existing method of propagating orbital errors using the covariance matrix is not theoretically solid. This project is proposed to study some problems in order to develop theories, methods and algorithms for the accurate debris orbit determination and prediction. The researches will be focused on: the relation between the volume, distribution and quality of the tracking data and orbit determination and prediction accuracy under the sparse data conditions; accurate methods to estimate debris ballistic coefficients and area-to-mass ratios; and development of theories and methods to propagate the debris orbit prediction errors. A complete software of debris orbit determination and prediction will be developed, and it will be tested using large volume of tracking data such that it can be readily used by industry users. This project is to expand the space geodesy into the study of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA).

英文关键词： space debris;orbit determination and prediction;sparse data;two line element;orbital error propagation