变化环境下江湖复合型洲滩湿地鸟类及其栖息地对水文过程的响应及保护措施优化

项目名称： 变化环境下江湖复合型洲滩湿地鸟类及其栖息地对水文过程的响应及保护措施优化

项目编号： No.51479072

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 其他

项目作者： 梁婕

作者单位： 湖南大学

项目金额： 84万元

中文摘要： 鸟类是湿地生态系统中最活跃的组成部分，在湿地能量流动和维持生态系统的稳定方面起着举足轻重的作用。本项目针对江湖复合型洲滩湿地的水文特征，以湖南省东洞庭湖国家级自然保护区为典型研究区域，将分析湿地鸟类种群结构和数量、鸟类栖息地质量和湿地水文过程的变化趋势，建立洲滩湿地鸟类种群结构和数量及其栖息地质量对水文过程的响应模型，确定维持洲滩湿地鸟类生物多样性的关键水文因子阈值；针对变化环境的不确定性，将构建不同气候情景及调控措施，模拟不同气候情景和相应措施下湿地水文过程，预测变化环境下洲滩湿地鸟类种群结构和数量及其栖息地质量；为减少变化环境的不确定性，将以生态-经济双赢为目标，以调控措施为随机模糊变量，建立不确定的调控措施投资组合优化模型，结合模糊随机模拟技术和遗传算法对优化结果进行评价。本项目将丰富洲滩湿地鸟类生物多样性变化的机理，并为变化环境下洲滩湿地鸟类及其栖息地的保护提供科学支撑。

中文关键词： 洲滩湿地；湿地鸟类；变化环境；水文过程；不确定性

英文摘要： Wetland bird, an important component part in the wetland ecosystem, plays a vital role in maintaining ecological system stability and is a good indicator of environmental change in the wetland ecosystem. Aim to the vulnerability to hydrological process of the river-lake compound wetlands of beach, this project take National Nature Reserve of East Dongting Lake as study area. Firstly, the change trend of wetland birds' population structure and quantity, their habitat and hydrological process of beach wetland will be analysis. The response model of wetland birds' population structure and quantity and their habitat to hydrological processes will be developed. And threshold of the key hydrological factor to maintain wetland bird biodiversity will be determined. Secondly, according to the uncertainty character of changing environment, different artificial control measurement under different climate scenarios will be constructed. The hydrological process of different climate scenarios and corresponding artificial control measurements will be simulated. And the responses of wetland birds and their habitat to changing environment will be predicted. Lastly, an optima portfolio model, with the target of attaining win-win economy and ecology and the variable of artifical control measurement, will be established using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) under uncertainty. The measurements and their cost or their combination to protect wetland birds and their habitat will be optimized under changing environment. This project will board the mechanism of wetland bird diversity to environment factors and will provide scientific support to protect birds under the changing environment.

英文关键词： Beach wetland;Wetland bird;Changing environment;Hydrological processes;Uncertainty