基于CAS与SD交互模型的中国木材供需预测研究

项目名称： 基于CAS与SD交互模型的中国木材供需预测研究

项目编号： No.71203011

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 程宝栋

作者单位： 北京林业大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 随着我国经济的快速发展，我国木材供需矛盾问题日益突出。为了实现林业在生态、经济和社会的可持续发展，需要从微观和宏观层面实现木材供需平衡。这就需要对木材供需趋势进行有效预测，从而为林业的协调发展提供决策依据。本项目拟从系统的角度来分析木材供需问题，在需求层面上从结构复杂性的角度对需求系统进行分析，在供给层面上从适应复杂性角度进行解释。在对木材供需系统分析基础上，利用Anylogic软件分别构建了基于系统动力学的木材需求模型和基于主体的木材供给模型，并通过价格、供需数量等变量实现两个模型的交互。利用该交互模型对我国的木材供需进行预测，判断我国木材供需发展趋势。最后，通过预测结果分析影响我国木材供需平衡的因素，模拟森林保护、林权改革等政策的作用效果，提出促进我国木材供需平衡的政策建议。

中文关键词： 木材；供需预测；复杂适应性系统；系统动力学；交互模型

英文摘要： With fast development of China's economy, the problem of timber supply is becoming increasingly severe. To maintain the sustainable development of forestry in ecology, economy and society, great efforts should be made on both the micro and macro levels. This means effective forecast of the supply and demand trend must be made to provide decision basis for coordinating the development of forestry. This project analyzes the problem of timber supply and demand from a systematic aspect. With regard to the demand, the analysis of the demand system is made from the aspect of structure complexity, and with regard to the supply, of complex adaptive system. On the analysis of China's supply and demand system, the software Anylogic is employed to construct two models - a timber demand model based on system dynamics and a production and supply model based on the agent. The interaction of the two models is achieved by such variables as price and the amount of supply and demand. This complex model is employed to forecast the timber supply and demand in China and as well as the trend. In the end, the forecast will be used to analyze the factors influencing the balance of the timber supply and demand, simulate the effect of policy such as forest protection, forest property right reform, and suggest specific policy to balance C

英文关键词： Timber；Forecast of supply and demand；CAS；SD；Interactive model