中国沿海通航环境对气候变化的脆弱性研究

项目名称： 中国沿海通航环境对气候变化的脆弱性研究

项目编号： No.40805063

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 生物科学

项目作者： 文元桥

作者单位： 武汉理工大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 本项目在提出通航环境对气候变化脆弱性的基础上，重点以长江三角洲沿海地区海上通航环境为研究对象，利用数理统计、大气与海洋环境数值模拟等技术研究其脆弱性的表现形式和时空演变规律，利用系统动力理论研究其脆弱性的形成机制；利用系统分析方法和层次分析方法建立通航环境对气候变化的脆弱性评价指标体系和评价模型；在此基础上对研究区域内通航环境对气候变化的脆弱性进行动态评价，并最终提出了通航环境对气候变化的适应对策。项目的研究对进一步开展气候变化对航运以及交通运输环境的影响研究具有重要的理论意义，也对水运基础设施的规划、设计、建设和维护以及航运企业制定发展策略和国家制定宏观的航运发展战略等具有重要的实践意义。

中文关键词： 通航环境；气候变化；脆弱性

英文摘要： The project presentes a concept of the vulnerability of the cliamte change impacts on the navigation environment. The navigation environment of the Yangtze River delta area is the main case study of the project. Based on the concept of the vulnerability of the navigation environment, the project study manifestations and spatial-temporal changes of the vulnerbility on the navigation environment using mathematical statistics theory, numerical simulation of the atmospheric and ocean environment and other technologies. The formation mechanism of the vulnerability is studied using dynamical systems theory. The method of system analysis and AHP are used to built the estimating index system and evaluation model of the vulnerability of the navigation environment. On this basis, a dynamic evaluation was conducted for the vulnerability of navigation environment under the climate change in studying areas and ultimately countermeasures were proposed to the adaptation of navigation environment to climate change. The study of this project had great significance for further research of the impact exerted by climate change on shipping and transportation environment, and it also had practical significance for the planning, designing, construction and maintenance of water way infrastructure and formulating of shipping companies' development strategies and national macro shipping development strategy,etc.

英文关键词： Navigation Environments; Climate Change;Vulnerability