气候变化条件下中国能源供给安全格局及其资源环境效应

项目名称： 气候变化条件下中国能源供给安全格局及其资源环境效应

项目编号： No.41271547

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 沈镭

作者单位： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 全球气候变化与能源供给安全，已经引起了国际社会的广泛关注。气候变化对中国能源供应系统的适应性提出新的挑战，气候变化条件下能源供给安全及其资源环境压力已成为我国经济社会可持续发展的一个重大问题。鉴于此，构建气候变化条件下的能源供给安全研究框架，刻画气候变化条件下中国能源供给安全的时空格局，辨析驱动力，揭示气候变化与能源供给安全、能源供给与资源环境之间的因果关系，开展不同资源环境约束情景下中国能源供给安全压力和不同减排情景下保障中国能源供给安全的资源环境效应研究，制定"响应"机制，对保障气候变化条件下中国能源供给安全，促进中国经济社会可持续发展具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本项目按照驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）研究思路，对气候变化条件下中国能源供给安全问题进行肢解，选取广东和陕西作为典型案例区，开展气候变化条件下典型区域保障能源供给安全及其资源环境效应研究，并提出不同对策与建议。

中文关键词： 能源供给安全；气候变化；区域经济发展；碳减排；资源环境效应

英文摘要： Global climate change and energy supply security has aroused great concern in the world. New challenges of climate change for the adaptability of energy supply system of China, challenges of energy supply security under climate change and its pressure on resources &environmental has become one of the major problems in China's economic and social sustainable development. In view of this, this program intends to build the framework of energy supply security under climate change, depict the Spatial and temporal pattern of China's energy supply security under climate change, and explore the Driving force for energy supply security of China, and then reveal the relationship between climate change and energy supply security, energy supply and resources &environment. Moreover, carry out analysis on pressure of China's energy supply security in different resources-environmental constrains scenarios and resources-environmental impacts in protection of China's energy supply security under different CO2 emission reduction scenarios, finally, develop the "response" mechanism accordingly. Therefore the researches mentioned above have important theoretical value and practical significance for the protection of energy supply security of China under climate change, promoting sustainable economic and social development of China.

英文关键词： Energy supply security；Climate change；Regional economic development；Carbon emission mitigation；resources and environment effects