气候变化及人类活动对流域径流及水库调度的不确定性影响研究

项目名称： 气候变化及人类活动对流域径流及水库调度的不确定性影响研究

项目编号： No.51509176

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 祝雪萍

作者单位： 太原理工大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 近年来不断加剧的气候变化及人类活动，未来也仍将对流域径流及流域控制水库的调度运行产生影响。这种变化条件的影响错综复杂，存在很大不确定性。因此本研究基于水循环模拟和情景模拟技术、模糊推理理论、多目标优化理论及不确定性分析技术等多学科的交叉与融合，进行水文变异分析并构建SWAT分布式水文模型，剥离气候及各种人类活动对径流的影响贡献；构建人类直接取用水模糊推理模型挖掘取用水影响规律，并改进SWAT模拟径流结果；辩识不确定性来源，并基于水文确定性与不确定性方法进行变化条件对流域径流的不确定性影响分析；基于多目标优化模型获取水库的历史优化调度规则，并探讨变化条件对水库调度的不确定性影响。最终形成研究变化条件对流域径流及水库调度影响及其不确定性的一套较为系统的研究框架体系，为把握变化条件综合影响下水资源演变规律、深入研究变化条件对区域水资源及水库调度的不确定性影响并提出适应性对策等提供理论和技术支持。

中文关键词： 气候变化及人类活动；径流；SWAT模型；水库调度；不确定性

英文摘要： Rising in recent years, climate change and human activities will continue to influence the basin runoff and reservoir operation in the future. The influence of the change conditions is complex, exist uncertainties. Therefore, this proposed research aims to develop a framework for the uncertainty evaluation on the influence of climate change and human activities on basin runoff and reservoir operation, based on the hydrological simulation and scenario simulation technology, fuzzy inference theory, multi-objective optimization theory and uncertainty analysis technology. The framework will consist of the following methodologies: analyze hydrological variation and build a distributed hydrological model SWAT, stripping the influence contribution of climate and all kinds of human activities on runoff; construct fuzzy inference model of human water consumption, mining water consumption influence rule on runoff, and improved SWAT simulated runoff result; indentify the sources of uncertainty and evaluate the uncertainty influences on runoff based on hydrological certainty and uncertainty methods; construct a multi-objective optimization model to capture reservoir optimal operation rules, and discuss the uncertainty influence of change conditions on reservoir operation conditions. The systematic analysis framework will be built to provide theoretical and technological supports for grasping the comprehensive influence rules of change conditions on water resources and evaluating the uncertainty influence of climate change and human activities on basin runoff and reservoir operation.

英文关键词： Climate change and human activities;runoff ;SWAT model;reservoir operation;uncertainty evaluation