异质性约束下黄土高原苹果干旱风险的分类适应性管理研究

项目名称： 异质性约束下黄土高原苹果干旱风险的分类适应性管理研究

项目编号： No.71473196

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 淮建军

作者单位： 西北农林科技大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 针对区域气候风险缺乏有效管理的现实难题，和提高生计资本增加适应性能力，降低脆弱性假设缺乏一致经验支持的学术问题，本项目研究黄土高原苹果干旱风险的分类适应性管理策略，旨在证明异质性约束下农户生计资本、适应性能力和脆弱性之间关联机制：在农户和区域异质性约束下，增加生计资本并不必然降低脆弱性；调整显著影响适应性能力和脆弱性的农户生计资本指标，实施分类适应性管理策略，能够有效降低脆弱性。本项目搜集黄土高原苹果重点生产县的面板数据，用苹果产量与干旱指数评估苹果的干旱适应性能力和脆弱性，据此把调研区划分为苹果优生、耐受、适宜和敏感四大区；通过替代性和互补性检验筛选出独立的农户生计资本指标，用随机和固定效应回归模型识别显著影响适应性能力的农户生计资本指标，用空间滞后计量模型识别显著影响脆弱性的农户生计资本指标，根据被选农户生计资本指标为各地提出适应性管理策略。这为区域气候风险评估和适应性管理的理论与实践提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 异质性约束；分类适应性管理；农户生计资本；脆弱性评估；干旱

英文摘要： There are the practical problem of poor effective managements for regional climate risk, and the academic issue of lacking consistent empirical supports for the hypothesis improving the livelihoods capital increases adaptive capacity and reduces vulnerability. The project explores classification adaptive management strategy for the apple-drought risk in the Loess Plateau to prove correlation mechanism between the rural household livelihoods capital (RHLC), adaptive capacity (AC) and vulnerability (V) under the heterogeneity constraints. We try to find that constrained by the heterogeneity of rural households and region, increasing the livelihoods capital does not necessarily reduce vulnerability; adjustment of the rural household livelihoods capital index (RHLCI) which significantly affect V and AC, and implementation of the classification adaptive management strategy can effectively reduce V. Collecting the panel data from important apple producing counties in the Loess Plateau, we assesses vulnerability and adaptive capacity of apple to drought using apples yield and drought index, whereby classifies the research area into apple eugenics , tolerant, appropriate and sensitive subareas; independent RHLCIs were screened through tested substitution and complementation firstly, then we identify significant RHLCIs effecting AC by the random and fixed effects regression model, and recognize significantly RHLCIs effecting V by the spatial-lag econometric models. We propose regional adaptive management strategies according to the last selected RHLCIs. This project provides a scientific basis for the theory and practice of regional climate risk assessment and adaptive management.

英文关键词： heterogeneous constraints;classification of adaptive management;rural household livelihood capital;vulnerability assessment;drought