变化环境下渭河流域气象、农业和水文干旱的多变量综合评估研究

项目名称： 变化环境下渭河流域气象、农业和水文干旱的多变量综合评估研究

项目编号： No.41501030

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 佘敦先

作者单位： 武汉大学

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 干旱是影响我国社会经济可持续发展最严重的自然灾害之一。随着全球气候变化和人类活动的不断加剧，干旱灾害愈来愈严重，干旱的演变进程分析、综合评估及其对变化环境的响应研究已成为保障我国水资源安全、粮食安全、生态安全迫切需要解决的一个重要科学问题。本项目以我国干旱灾害突出的渭河流域为研究区域，在系统分析气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱演变特征的基础上，提出一种考虑气象、农业和水文干旱发展过程和共同影响下的多变量综合干旱评估方法，用以客观全面的识别和评估渭河流域干旱的发生发展过程，进一步地，结合分布式水循环模拟技术，定量研究气候自然变化和人类活动对渭河流域综合干旱的影响，辨识最有可能加剧该地区综合干旱的气候和人类活动条件。项目研究的理论与成果对于科学认识干旱的发生发展过程具有重要的意义和价值，将为流域水资源管理以及防灾减灾提供科学评估和决策管理的科技支撑。

中文关键词： 气候变化；水文模型；综合干旱评估；渭河流域

英文摘要： Drought is considered to be one of the most harmful nature disasters in China and has greatly affected Chinese socio-economic sustainable development. Under the impact of global warming and enhanced human activity, drought disaster occurs more frequently. The research on spatio-temporal variation, integrated evaluation of drought and its response to changing environment becomes an important scientific problem to guarantee the water, food and ecosystem security in China. Drought disaster occurs frequently during the past years in Weihe River Basin (WRB) and becomes one of the main constraints to economic development in this area. Therefore, WRB is chosen as a study area in this project. We firstly analyze the spatio-temporal variation of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought in WRB, and then propose an integrated drought evaluation method based on the multivariable statistical models. The new proposed index can be used to monitor and evaluate the propagation of different types of drought events. Furthermore, we will quantitatively analyze the impact of climate change and human activity on drought event and identify the key factors that may mostly probably induce drought disasters in WRB. The results of this project have important significance to help us understand the formation and propagation of drought disasters, and will provide scientific and technological basis for the scientific assessment and decision-making management of drought disaster in the WRB and also other areas in China.

英文关键词： climate change;hydrological model;integrated drought evaluation;Weihe River Basin