气候框架公约下农业碳排放的增长机理及减排政策研究

项目名称： 气候框架公约下农业碳排放的增长机理及减排政策研究

项目编号： No.71273105

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 张俊飚

作者单位： 华中农业大学

项目金额： 50万元

中文摘要： 碳排放导致的全球气候变化已给人类经济和社会发展带来了显著影响，实施碳减排以应对气候变化已成为国际社会的共识。2009年我国已确定2020年单位产值温室气体排放较2005年减少40-45%的目标，使得包括农业在内的各个产业的发展必须服务于这个减排目标的实现。因此，研究并推进农业碳减排对实现我国减排目标具有重要意义。 本项目是在大规模实地调研和数据资料分析的基础上，通过对农业碳排放测算指标体系的编制和环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）、脱钩模型、Kaya恒等式、结构方程模型、CGE模型等现代分析工具的引入，来定量测算碳排量并揭示其历史演变规律和空间地域特征、剖析农业碳排放增长的动因机制及与农业经济发展之间的相互关系、探究微观农户碳行为方式及其影响机理，研究并设计农业碳减排的技术路径与政策框架，以便为政府相关部门在农业碳减排政策制定方面提供科学依据和理论支撑。

中文关键词： 农业碳排放；碳汇；碳生产率；减排成本；时空特征

英文摘要： It is universally acknowledged that global climate change caused by carbon emissions has brought a significant impact on human economic and social development ,implying carbon emission reduction to tackle climate change has become the international community's consensus. In 2009, China has identified the target of reducing the output of greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% per unit of 2020 compared to 2005 which makes the development of various industries, including agriculture, have to serve the implementation of this emission reduction targets. Therefore, to research and promote agricultural carbon reduction has important meaning to achieving our emission reduction targets. This project is on the basis of large-scale field research and data analysis through the preparation of the index system of agricultural carbon emissions estimates and the introduction of modern analytical tools such as environmental Kuznets curve(EKC), decoupling model, Kaya equation, structural equation model, CGE model to quantitatively estimate carbon emissions and to reveal its historical evolution and spatial characteristics, to analyze acting mechanism of agricultural carbon emissions growth and the relationship with the development of agricultural economy, to explore micro-carbon behavior and its influence mechanism of farmers, resea

英文关键词： Agricultural carbon emissions；carbon sequestration；carbon productivity；cost of emission reduction；spatial and temporal characteristics