自然灾害风险的时空尺度效应分析与推绎技术研究—以农业旱灾风险为例

项目名称： 自然灾害风险的时空尺度效应分析与推绎技术研究—以农业旱灾风险为例

项目编号： No.41471426

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 赵思健

作者单位： 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所

项目金额： 70万元

中文摘要： 自然灾害风险系统拥有自然与社会双重属性，在本质是尺度依赖的，存在显著的时空尺度效应。只有通过多尺度的耦合与推绎研究才能真实反映灾害风险的变化实质，体现出灾害风险应有的动态特性。本研究将从时空两个维度入手，以农业旱灾风险为例，在理论、技术和应用三个层面对灾害风险的时空尺度效应及尺度推绎技术进行系统研究。在理论上，深入探索灾害风险的时空尺度效应，构建一个完整的灾害风险尺度观；在技术上，遵循数据分析到风险量度到产品输出的灾害风险分析流程，在数据、量度和区划三个方面，研究多源灾害数据的时空尺度融合、灾害风险量度的时空尺度变换和灾害风险区划的时空尺度转换三大核心技术，构建一个完整的时空尺度推绎技术体系；在应用上，选择具有代表性的东北三省为例，利用模型开展农业旱灾风险时空尺度推绎的实证研究，制作出多时空尺度的旱灾风险评估区划图，为支撑农业保险产品创新、推进农业保险的精细化服务。

中文关键词： 自然灾害；风险分析；时空尺度；尺度效应；尺度推绎

英文摘要： Natural disaster risk system has dual properties of both nature and society, and it is in nature scale-dependent, presenting significant spatial and temporal scale effect. Only through multi-scale coupled study in both space and time dimensions, the coherent variabilities and dynamic attributes of natural disaster risk can be explored. Therefore, in this project, spatial-and-temporal scale effect and scaling of agricultural drought risk from natural disasters will be studied in three aspects of theory, technology, and application. In theory, an entire spatial-and-temporal scale view of nature disaster risk will be formed by deeply exploring its spatial-and-temporal scale effect. In technology, since natural risk analysis process is composed of 3 sub-processes, i.e. data analysis, risk measure and risk zonation, 3 types of scaling technologies of spatial-and-temporal scale fusion of multi-source risk-related data, spatial-and-temporal scale cross of risk measure, and spatial-and-temporal scale tranfer of risk zonation, will be constructed to finally establish a entire scaling technology framework. In application, spatial-and-temporal scaling of agricultural drought risk in Northeast China will be performed by using the above models, and as a result multi-scale risk assessment and zonation maps will be worked out to support agricultural insurance product innovation and promote refinement of agricultural insurance premium rating.

英文关键词： Natural Disaster;Risk Analysis;Spatial-and-temporal Scale;Scale Effect;Scaling