深部采动诱发非导水断层活化突水的不确定性分析及风险评估模型研究

项目名称： 深部采动诱发非导水断层活化突水的不确定性分析及风险评估模型研究

项目编号： No.51509149

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 颜伟

作者单位： 山东科技大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 考虑采动应力场及高压水渗流场耦合作用，设计相似材料模拟试验，再现非导水断层活化突水的物理过程，揭示采动诱发断层两盘错动滑移的演化规律；获知多维因素耦合效应及其演化与参数响应之间的关系，提取评价采动诱发非导水断层活化程度所需的多维因素及其影响程度；依据实验结果和断层突水案例，辨识断层活化突水诸多影响因子的随机性、模糊性等不确定性特征，构建非导水断层采动活化型突水风险的不确定性多维参数空间，模拟揭示断层活化突水不确定性特征的内生传递机理；考虑不确定性参数的多维复杂性，基于全局灵敏度定性与定量分析方法获得多个参数协同作用对突水风险的灵敏度系数，确立不确定性主控参数；进而基于模糊集理论与随机模拟方法，建立能够表达模糊和随机不确定性的混合模糊-随机模型，实现采动诱发非导水断层活化突水风险等级的精益评估。该项目深化了对断层活化突水不确定性传递机理的认识，为其风险评估与预警预报提供新的思路与方法。

中文关键词： 深部开采；断层活化；突水风险；不确定性

英文摘要： The similar material model test will be designed to simulate the physical process of water inrush induced by fault activation, and uncover the evolution rules of fault walls slipping and moving in consideration of the coupling action between mining stress field and high-pressure water seepage field; Learn the relationship between the multidimensional factors coupling action as well as their evolution and response parameters, and extract the multidimensional factors and their influence degree to make a proper evaluation on fault activation induced by deep mining; According to the test data and coal mine investigation on water inrush cases of fault activation, identify the uncertainty characteristics of impact factors of fault activation water inrush, including randomness, fuzziness and unascertainty, deduce the uncertain multidimensional parameter space describing water inrush risk of fault activation induced by deep mining, and reveal quantitatively the endogenous transmission mechanism of water inrush uncertainty characteristics of fault activation induced by deep mining; Considering the multi-dimension and complexity of uncertain parameters, the global sensitivity analysis method will be used to acquire the sensitivity coefficients of multi-parameter synergistic action to water inrush risk, and then determine the main control parameters of water inrush uncertainty; Based on the fuzzy set theory as well as stochastic simulation method, establish the fuzzy- probabilistic hybrid model to express the randomness and fuzziness of main control parameters, and realize lean evaluation on the risk level of water inrush of fault activation induced by deep mining. This project is to deepen the understanding of the propagation mechanism for water inrush uncertainty of fault activation induced by deep mining, and provide a new idea for risk assessment and early warning of fault water inrush.

英文关键词： Deep Mining;Fault Activation;Risk of Water Inrush;Uncertainty