基于水资源系统演变不确定性的水资源短缺风险评估

项目名称： 基于水资源系统演变不确定性的水资源短缺风险评估

项目编号： No.51309129

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 黄彬彬

作者单位： 南昌工程学院

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 该项目旨在建立一套完整的水资源短缺风险及传播机理识别、风险评估的理论方法体系。以"自然-社会"二元水循环为主线，从水资源系统的角度，识别水资源短缺的主要风险因子，并提出水资源短缺量化评价指标体系；结合供水、需水、配水与调度对水资源短缺的影响，构建水资源短缺风险的形成与传播机理，并定量识别其驱动机制；针对水资源系统演变的随机性和确定性特征，结合D-S证据理论、随机集理论、层次分析法等方法，建立水资源短缺风险评价指标体系和评价方法。选取江西省缺水区域-袁河流域为研究区，进行水资源短缺风险量化评价实证研究，并结合评价结果的合理性分析对建立的理论方法体系进行优化。

中文关键词： 水资源短缺；风险识别；风险分析；风险评价；D-S证据理论

英文摘要： This project is aiming to establish a complete theory and method system of water shortage risk identification, risk assessment and propagation mechanism. Focusing on the natural-social dualistic water cycle, from the prospective of water resources system, the project identifies the main risk factors of water shortage and establishes the water shortage evolution index system. Combining with the influence from water supply, water demand, water distribution and regulation, we will establish the theory of the formation and communication of water shortage risk, and identify quantitatively its driving mechanism.Targeting on the characters of randomness and certainty of the water shortage evolution, and associating with some methods like D-S evidence theory, random set theory, analytic hierarchy process, etc., we will establish the water shortage risk evaluation system and evaluation method. We will take one water shortage area of Jiangxi province---- Yuanhe River as the research area to do a empirical research on quantitative assessment of water shortage risk, and optimize the established theory and methods system with the rational analysis of the evaluation result.

英文关键词： water resources shortage；risk identification；risk analysis；risk evaluation；D-S evidence theory