面向水资源短缺风险规避的灌区需水结构优化布局研究

项目名称： 面向水资源短缺风险规避的灌区需水结构优化布局研究

项目编号： No.51309202

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 张金萍

作者单位： 郑州大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 水资源短缺是制约灌区可持续发展的关键因素。对渠灌灌区而言，灌区来水具有随机性，而灌区用水又受控于需水结构，因此，灌区水资源短缺风险规避必须与变化环境下的水资源供给与需求相结合。本项目以我国北方典型渠灌灌区-陆浑灌区为例，借助长系列数据资料，深入剖析灌区来水和需水变化发展规律，探究降水、可灌溉水量等主要水文气象变量与作物需水量的统计分布特性及其相关关系；应用Copula函数，构建不同来水和需水结构条件下的灌区水资源短缺风险联合分布模型；结合灌区农业发展规划，模拟预测灌区未来不同情境下的水资源短缺风险及其调控机制，提出抵抗水资源变动风险能力较强的灌区需水结构布局模式，以期为我国北方渠灌灌区提升用水安全和维护经济发展提供参考。

中文关键词： 水资源短缺；联合概率分布；风险规避；需水结构；灌区

英文摘要： Water shortage is a key restricting factor for the sustainable development of the irrigation district. For canal irrigation district, the irrigated surface water is random, and the water use is controlled by water demand structure. Under a changing environment, the water shortage risk aversion must be combined with the supply and demand of water resources. Taking the typical canal irrigation district in northern China-Luhun irrigation district in Henan province as an example, and with a long series of data, the changing laws and features of the irrigated surface water and water demand are analyzed deeply, the statistical characteristics and correlations of the hydrological and meteorological variables (scuh as rainfall, irrigated surface water, ect.)and crop water requirement are also explored. With the copula method, the joint distribution models of water shortage risk with different irrigated surface water and water demand are built. Finally, combined with irrigational development planning, water shortage risks with different situations are simulated and regulated, and water demand structure optimization with high drought resistance ability is presented eventually, which provides a reference to enhance water security and maintaining economic development for canal irrigation district of northern China.

英文关键词： water shortage；joint probability distribution；risk aversion；water demand structure；irrigation district