不确定条件下水质水量优化配置与风险决策方法研究

项目名称： 不确定条件下水质水量优化配置与风险决策方法研究

项目编号： No.51309095

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 朱华

作者单位： 华北电力大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 水质水量统一优化配置是水资源研究领域的一个难点，也是解决我国水资源短缺、水生态环境恶化这一重大需求问题的有效途径。本研究将开发基于水循环模拟和多层次优化的水质水量联合配置模型系统。该系统将耦合分布式水文水质模拟模型，并反映大量系统成份及其间关系的不确定性，从而实现在变化条件下水量水质综合调控管理与风险决策。该模型系统主要包括4个方面：（1）不确定性水文-水环境综合辨识，（2）变化条件下水循环过程模拟，（3）不确定性水质水量优化配置，（4）配置方案的优选与风险评价。研究选取温榆河流域作为案例研究对象，在不确定条件下对北京市五区（海淀、昌平、顺义、朝阳和通州）进行跨区域跨行业的水质水量优化配置研究。研究将创新性地实现多种方法与技术在水质水量优化配置中的耦合应用，研究结果将对温榆河流域水资源利用与调配、水环境恢复和保护、产业发展等一系列实际问题提供科学支持。

中文关键词： 水资源；优化配置；水质水量；不确定性；风险决策

英文摘要： Integrated optimal allocation of water quality and quantity is a challenging task in water resources researches, which is also a desired approach for tackling problems of water shortage and deterioration in China. In this project, based on water cycle simulation and multi-level optimization, a set of modeling methods for integrated optimal allocation of water quality and quantity will be developed. The system will incorporate a distributed hydrological model with water-quality simulation models, and reflect all kinds of uncertainties existed in the system factors and their relationships. Thus, the proposed methodology can support the integrated optimal allocation of water quality and quantity under varying conditions and generate multiple management schemes. In details, the proposed methodology include: (1) characteristics of hydrological and environmental systems under uncertainties, (2) simulation of water cycle processes under varying conditions, (3) inexact optimization for water quality and quantity allocation, and (4) performance assessment and risk evaluation for multiple allocation schemes. A case of the Wenyu River watershed will be studied in the project. The multi-region and multi-sector system regarding water quality and quantity allocation for five regions (i.e. Haidian, Changping, Shunyi, Chaoyang

英文关键词： Water resources；Optimal allocation；Water quality and quantity；Uncertainty；Risk decision-making