IPD项目交付模式下风险分担机制与理论模型研究

项目名称： IPD项目交付模式下风险分担机制与理论模型研究

项目编号： No.71272146

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 张连营

作者单位： 天津大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 综合项目交付（Integrated Project Delivery，IPD）是近年来新兴的项目交付模式，该模式基于BIM技术通过项目各方的早期介入，协同合作，共担风险，共享收益，以提高项目生命周期的管理绩效。有效解决IPD风险分担问题是该交付模式成功实施的基础。本项目拟结合合作博弈理论对IPD模式下风险分担机制和理论模型进行研究。通过对IPD项目的风险特征分析，构建该模式下风险分担的影响因素体系，提取关键影响因素，并利用二元语义有关算子对其进行测度，进而通过结构方程模型分析各关键因素对风险分担机制的影响路径；基于参与者有限理性的假定，改进N人合作博弈的协商函数和效用函数,建立IPD项目风险分担的N人不对称Nash协商模型，并结合案例推理和实证分析对模型的适用性进行验证。本研究不仅可以为IPD项目风险分担决策提供理论支持，而且将对关系契约下多方参与的风险分担理论进行进一步丰富和完善。

中文关键词： IPD模式；风险分担机制；合作博弈；系统动力学；

英文摘要： Integrated Project Delivery (IPD), based on the BIM (Building Information Modeling) technology, is emerging as a new delivery method in recent years. It features early involvement of all parties, collaboration and shared risk/reward which improve management performance in the life cycle. Therefore, reasonable risk sharing is the foundation of its successful implementation. This study aims to research on the mechanism and theoretical model of risk sharing in IPD project by incorporating the cooperative game theory. We establish the influencing factor system through analyzing the risk characteristics of IPD project, and meanwhile, identify its key factors which are measured by related operators of the 2-tuple linguistic model. Then we adopt the Structural Equation Model to study the factors' influencing path to the risk sharing mechanism. Furthermore, we improve the bargain function and utility function of the cooperative game model based on the hypothesis of participants' bounded rationality, and build the N-person Asymmetric Nash Bargain Solution for risk sharing in IPD project which is verified by Case Based Reasoning and empirical study. The research results of this project will not only provide theoretical support for decision-making of the risk sharing in IPD projects, but also enrich and perfect the multipa

英文关键词： Integrated project delivery；risk sharing mechanism；cooperative game；system dynamics；