装备测试性增长试验理论与关键技术研究

项目名称： 装备测试性增长试验理论与关键技术研究

项目编号： No.61304103

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 李天梅

作者单位： 中国人民解放军第二炮兵工程大学

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 针对装备因未开展测试性增长试验而不能充分暴露装备测试性设计缺陷的问题，本项目研究装备测试性增长试验理论与关键技术。研究建立基于不同试验修正策略的测试性增长数学模型及其参数估计方法，为测试性增长动态规划模型建模提供可靠、准确的测试性指标估计初值；研究测试性增长规划模型建模理论与方法，建立基于最优停止理论测试性增长动态规划模型，提出基于动态规划方法的模型求解算法，将试验管理和决策定量化、科学化；研究并建立基于Bayes变动统计理论的测试性增长评估模型，提出基于解析法和MCMC的模型求解算法，为设计测试性增长数学模型修改优化策略奠定理论基础；研究并提出基于现代统计理论的测试性增长数学模型结构和参数修改策略。项目研究成果对装备测试性增长试验数学模型建模、规划、评估具有重要指导作用，对提高装备测试性增长试验科学性具有很强实用价值，对武器装备研制具有重要的理论指导价值。

中文关键词： 测试性增长试验；规划模型；跟踪模型；预计模型；修改策略

英文摘要： This program is aiming to solve the problem that testability design limitation can not be well discovered bacausing of no testability growth test, so,in this program, the testability growth theory and key technologies are researched.Two growth mathematic models based on different test revise strategies and their parameters estimation methods are founded ,which can offer exact and reliable testability initial value for the foundation of testability programing model.The testability test dynamic programing model based on optimization stop rule is founded,and then the model solution method based on dyanmic plan is put forward,With the application of the above method and model,the testability growth test management and decision-making are scientized. The testability growth estimation model based on Bayes dynamic population inference theory is founded,and then the model solution methods based on analytical theory and MCMC are put forward respectively. The study of growth estimation model and method can establish theory foundation for testability growth model modification strategy.The modefication strategy of testability growth mathematic model structure and parameters are designed based on modernistic statistical theory. The research in this program provides important guidance to the testability growth test mathmeti

英文关键词： testability growth test；planning model；traceing model；prediction model；modeification sreategy