Statistical methods are developed for analysis of clinical and virus genetics data from phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of vaccines against novel coronavirus COVID-19. Vaccine efficacy (VE) of a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 caused by one of finitely many genetic strains of SARS-CoV-2 may vary by strain. The problem of assessing differential VE by viral genetics can be formulated under a competing risks model where the endpoint is virologically confirmed COVID-19 and the cause-of-failure is the infecting SARS-CoV-2 genotype. Strain-specific VE is defined as one minus the cause-specific hazard ratio (vaccine/placebo). For the COVID-19 VE trials, the time to COVID-19 is right-censored, and a substantial percentage of failure cases are missing the infecting virus genotype. We develop estimation and hypothesis testing procedures for strain-specific VE when the failure time is subject to right censoring and the cause-of-failure is subject to missingness, focusing on $J \ge 2$ discrete categorical unordered or ordered virus genotypes. The stratified Cox proportional hazards model is used to relate the cause-specific outcomes to explanatory variables. The inverse probability weighted complete-case (IPW) estimator and the augmented inverse probability weighted complete-case (AIPW) estimator are investigated. Hypothesis tests are developed to assess whether the vaccine provides at least a specified level of efficacy against some viral genotypes and whether VE varies across genotypes, adjusting for covariates. The finite-sample properties of the proposed tests are studied through simulations and are shown to have good performances. In preparation for the real data analyses, the developed methods are applied to a pseudo dataset mimicking the Moderna COVE trial.
翻译:为分析第3阶段的临床和病毒遗传学数据,开发了统计方法,用于分析第3阶段随机随机的、由安慰剂控制的疫苗试验,以对抗新型冠状病毒COVID-19。疫苗效力(VE)的定义是,预防由SARS-COV-2有限的许多遗传菌株之一引起的COVID-19疫苗的疫苗效力(VE),时间可能因菌株而异。通过病毒基因型来评估病毒遗传学差异的问题可以在一种相互竞争的风险模型下进行。当端点是病毒型号(COVID-1919),而失败的原因是SARS-COV-2基因型。 斯特赖因特异性VE被定义为除因特定原因而导致的危险比率(Vacine/plabobob)。对于COVID-VE试验,使用的时间是右位直位数的直径直径直径直径直径直的直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直径直的直径直径直径直径直径直值数据分析。