A modified SIRD model for Covid19 spread prediction using ensemble neural networks

In this paper, we propose an analysis of Covid19 evolution and prediction on Romania combined with the mathematical model of SIRD, an extension of the classical model SIR, which includes the deceased as a separate category. The reason is that, because we can not fully trust the reported numbers of infected or recovered people, we base our analysis on the more reliable number of deceased people. In addition, one of the parameters of our model includes the proportion of infected and tested versus infected. Since there are many factors which have an impact on the evolution of the pandemic, we decide to treat the estimation and the prediction based on the previous 7 days of data, particularly important here being the number of deceased. We perform the estimation and prediction using neural networks in two steps. Firstly, by simulating data with our model, we train several neural networks which learn the parameters of the model. Secondly, we use an ensemble of ten of these neural networks to forecast the parameters from the real data of Covid19 in Romania. Many of these results are backed up by a theorem which guarantees that we can recover the parameters from the reported data.