In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by decomposing the latter into random and systematic errors, and showing that the former is equivalent to the variance of the random error. In addition, we observe that current methods unnecessarily compromise performance by modifying the model and training loss to estimate the target and uncertainty jointly. We show that estimating them separately without modifications improves performance. Following this, we propose a novel method that estimates the target labels and magnitude of the prediction error in two steps. We demonstrate this method on a large-scale MRI reconstruction task, and achieve significantly better results than the state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation methods.
翻译:在医疗保健应用中,预测性不确定性被用来评估预测准确性。在本文中,我们证明,目前方法估计的预测性不确定性与预测错误没有高度关联,将预测错误分解为随机和系统性错误,并表明前者相当于随机错误的差异。此外,我们发现,目前的方法不必要地损害绩效,修改模型和培训损失,以共同估计目标和不确定性。我们表明,不作修改而单独估算这些不确定性可以提高绩效。随后,我们提出一个新的方法,用两个步骤来估计预测错误的目标标签和程度。我们在大规模 MRI重建任务上展示了这种方法,并取得了比最先进的不确定性估算方法更好的结果。