In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area cells. The model treats the populations of cells and authorities of districts as agents, such that the former can reduce their economic activity and the latter can recommend economic activity reduction both with the overall goal to slow down the epidemic spreading. The agents make decisions with the aim of attaining as high social positions as possible relative to other agents. They evaluate their social positions based on the local and regional infection rates, compliance to the authorities' regulations, regional drops in economic activity, and the efforts they make to mitigate the spread of epidemic. We find that the willingness of populations to comply with authorities' recommendations has the most drastic effect to the spreading of epidemic: periodic waves spread almost unimpeded in non-compliant populations, while in compliant ones the spread is minimal with a chaotic spreading pattern and significantly lower infection rates. Health and economic concerns of agents turned out to have lesser roles, the former increasing their efforts and the latter decreasing them.
翻译:在这项研究中,我们提出了一个动态的代理模式,以调查社会经济与SEIRS型流行病之间在地理范围内的相互作用,该模式分为小区区和小区区间;该模式将各区基层和当局的人口作为代理,以便前者可以减少其经济活动,后者可以建议减少经济活动,其总体目标是减缓该流行病的蔓延;该代理作出决策,目的是取得相对于其他代理尽可能高的社会地位;根据地方和地区感染率、遵守当局条例、区域经济活动下降以及它们为减缓流行病蔓延所作的努力,评估其社会地位;我们发现,民众遵守当局建议的意愿对流行病的蔓延影响最大:周期性波浪几乎无阻碍地蔓延在不服从要求的人口中蔓延,而在符合要求的人群中,传播的频率最小,混乱的传播模式和低得多的感染率;该代理的健康和经济关切作用较小,前者加大了工作力度,后者减少了工作。