Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of MCMC methods exist for generating samples from arbitrary, possibly complex, target distributions. The performance of an MCMC method is predominately governed by the choice of the so-called proposal distribution used. In this paper, we introduce a new type of proposal distribution for the use in MCMC methods that operates component-wise and with multiple trials per iteration. Specifically, the novel class of proposal distributions, called Plateau distributions, do not overlap, thus ensuring that the multiple trials are drawn from different regions of the state space. Furthermore, the Plateau proposal distributions allow for a bespoke adaptation procedure that lends itself to a Markov chain with efficient problem dependent state space exploration and improved burn-in properties. Simulation studies show that our novel MCMC algorithm outperforms competitors when sampling from distributions with a complex shape, highly correlated components or multiple modes.
翻译:Markov 链-Monte Carlo (MCMCC) 方法是抽样方法,已成为统计中常用的工具,例如用于执行Monte Carlo的整合;由于计算力的增加,在从任意、可能复杂的目标分布中生成样本方面存在着许多MCMC方法的变异; MMC方法的性能主要受所使用所谓建议分布的选择所支配;在本文中,我们引入了一种新型的建议分配方法,用于MMC方法的使用,该方法可操作组件,并按迭代进行多次试验;具体地说,名为Plateau 分布的新型建议分配类别并不重叠,从而确保从国家空间的不同区域进行多重试验;此外,Plateau 建议书的分布允许一种简单的适应程序,这种程序能使Markov链具有高效的问题依赖空间探索和改进燃烧特性。模拟研究表明,在以复杂形状、高度关联的组成部分或多种模式对分布进行取样时,我们的新型MC算法优于竞争者。