A central design problem in game theoretic analysis is the estimation of the players' utilities. In many real-world interactive situations of human decision making, including human driving, the utilities are multi-objective in nature; therefore, estimating the parameters of aggregation, i.e., mapping of multi-objective utilities to a scalar value, becomes an essential part of game construction. However, estimating this parameter from observational data introduces several challenges due to a host of unobservable factors, including the underlying modality of aggregation and the possibly boundedly rational behaviour model that generated the observation. Based on the concept of rationalisability, we develop algorithms for estimating multi-objective aggregation parameters for two common aggregation methods, weighted and satisficing aggregation, and for both strategic and non-strategic reasoning models. Based on three different datasets, we provide insights into how human drivers aggregate the utilities of safety and progress, as well as the situational dependence of the aggregation process. Additionally, we show that irrespective of the specific solution concept used for solving the games, a data-driven estimation of utility aggregation significantly improves the predictive accuracy of behaviour models with respect to observed human behaviour.
翻译:游戏理论分析的一个中心设计问题是对玩家的公用设施的估计。在许多现实世界中,人类决策的互动环境,包括人驾驶,公用设施具有多重目标性质;因此,估计总合参数,即将多目标公用设施绘制成一个星标值,成为游戏构造的一个基本部分。然而,从观测数据中估算这一参数,由于一系列无法观察的因素,包括集成的基本模式和产生观察结果的可能具有约束性的合理行为模式,带来了若干挑战。根据合理性概念,我们为两种共同集成方法,即加权和卫星集成,以及战略和非战略推理模型,制定了估算多目标汇总参数的算法。根据三个不同的数据集,我们深入了解人类驱动因素如何综合安全和进步的公用设施,以及集成过程的形势依赖性。此外,我们表明,无论采用何种具体解决方案概念解决游戏,数据驱动的公用设施汇总估计都大大改进了行为模型在观察人类行为方面的预测准确性。</s>