Probability theory is far from being the most general mathematical theory of uncertainty. A number of arguments point at its inability to describe second-order ('Knightian') uncertainty. In response, a wide array of theories of uncertainty have been proposed, many of them generalisations of classical probability. As we show here, such frameworks can be organised into clusters sharing a common rationale, exhibit complex links, and are characterised by different levels of generality. Our goal is a critical appraisal of the current landscape in uncertainty theory.
翻译:概率理论远非最一般的不确定性数学理论。 一些论点指出,它无法描述第二阶('Knightian')不确定性。 作为回应,提出了各种各样的不确定性理论,其中许多是典型概率的概括性。 正如我们在这里所显示的,这种框架可以分为具有共同原理的组群,展示复杂的联系,并以不同程度的普遍性为特征。我们的目标是批判性地评估不确定性理论中的当前景象。