Evaluating the robustness of LLMs to adversarial attacks is crucial for safe deployment, yet current red-teaming methods are often prohibitively expensive. We compare the ability of fast proxy metrics to predict the real-world robustness of an LLM against a simulated attacker ensemble. This allows us to estimate a model's robustness to computationally expensive attacks without requiring runs of the attacks themselves. Specifically, we consider gradient-descent-based embedding-space attacks, prefilling attacks, and direct prompting. Even though direct prompting in particular does not achieve high ASR, we find that it and embedding-space attacks can predict attack success rates well, achieving $r_p=0.87$ (linear) and $r_s=0.94$ (Spearman rank) correlations with the full attack ensemble while reducing computational cost by three orders of magnitude.
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