Randomization-only Inference in Experiments with Interference

In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.