A Data Driven Method for Multi-step Prediction of Ship Roll Motion in High Sea States

Ship roll motion in high sea state has large amplitude and nonlinear dynamics, and its prediction is significant for the operability, safety and survivability. This paper presents a novel data-driven methodology to provide multi-step prediction of the ship roll motion in high sea states. A hybrid neural network is proposed that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) in parallel. The motivation is to extract the nonlinear dynamics characteristics and the hydrodynamic memory information through the advantage of CNN and LSTM, respectively. For the feature selection, the time histories of motion states and wave heights are selected to involve sufficient information. Taken a scaled KCS as the study object, the ship motions in sea state 7 irregular long crested waves are simulated and used for the validation. The results show that at least one period of roll motion can be accurately predicted by using the proposed method. Compared with the single LSTM and CNN method, the proposed method has better performance in the prediction of the amplitude of roll angles. Besides, the comparison results also demonstrate that selecting motion states and wave heights as feature space improves the prediction accuracy, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed method.