We propose a new 2-stage procedure that relies on the elastic net penalty to estimate a network based on partial correlations when data are heavy-tailed. The new estimator allows to consider the lasso penalty as a special case. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we test the performance on several underlying network structures and four different multivariate distributions: Gaussian, t-Student with 3 and 20 degrees of freedom and contaminated Gaussian. Simulation analysis shows that the 2-stage estimator performs best for heavy-tailed data and it is also robust to distribution misspecification, both in terms of identification of the sparsity patterns and numerical accuracy. Empirical results on real-world data focus on the estimation of the European banking network during the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the new estimator can provide interesting insights both for the development of network indicators, such as network strength, to identify crisis periods and for the detection of banking network properties, such as centrality and level of interconnectedness, that might play a relevant role in setting up adequate risk management and mitigation tools.
翻译:我们提出一个新的两阶段程序,以弹性网罚法为基础,在数据繁琐时,根据部分相关关系估计网络。新的估计器允许将拉索罚单作为一个特例来考虑。我们利用蒙特卡洛模拟,用几个基本网络结构和四种不同的多变分布来测试业绩:高森,T-学生3和20度的自由度和被污染的高森。模拟分析显示,2阶段估量器在大量详细数据方面表现最佳,而且对于分配错误的区分也很有力,无论是在确定宽度模式和数字准确性方面,都如此。关于真实世界数据的经验性结果侧重于在Covid-19大流行期间对欧洲银行网络的估计。我们表明,新的估量器既可以为网络指标的开发提供有趣的见解,例如网络强度,也为确定危机时期和对银行网络特性的探测,例如核心和相互联系程度,从而在确定适当的风险管理和缓解工具方面发挥相关作用。