Entropy-Based Approximation of the Secretary Problem

In this work we consider the well-known Secretary Problem -- a number $n$ of elements, each having an adversarial value, are arriving one-by-one according to some random order, and the goal is to choose the highest value element. The decisions are made online and are irrevocable -- if the algorithm decides to choose or not to choose the currently seen element, based on the previously observed values, it cannot change its decision later regarding this element. The measure of success is the probability of selecting the highest value element, minimized over all adversarial assignments of values. We show existential and constructive upper bounds on approximation of the success probability in this problem, depending on the entropy of the randomly chosen arrival order, including the lowest possible entropy $O(\log\log (n))$ for which the probability of success could be constant. We show that below entropy level $\mathcal{H}<0.5\log\log n$, all algorithms succeed with probability $0$ if random order is selected uniformly at random from some subset of permutations, while we are able to construct in polynomial time a non-uniform distribution with entropy $\mathcal{H}$ resulting in success probability of at least $\Omega\left(\frac{1}{(\log\log n +3\log\log\log n -\mathcal{H})^{2+\epsilon}}\right)$, for any constant $\epsilon>0$. We also prove that no algorithm using entropy $\mathcal{H}=O((\log\log n)^a)$ can improve our result by more than polynomially, for any constant $0<a<1$. For entropy $\log\log (n)$ and larger, our analysis precisely quantifies both multiplicative and additive approximation of the success probability. In particular, we improve more than doubly exponentially on the best previously known additive approximation guarantee for the secretary problem.