Causality in the Can: Diet Coke's Impact on Fatness

Artificially sweetened beverages like Diet Coke are often considered healthier alternatives, but the debate over their impact on obesity persists. Previous research has predominantly relied on observational data or randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which may not accurately capture the causal relationship between Diet Coke consumption and obesity. This study uses causal inference methods, employing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to examine this relationship across diverse demographics. Instead of relying on RCT data, we constructed a causal graph and applied the back-door criterion with its adjustment formula to estimate the RCT distributions. We then calculated the counterfactual quantity, the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS), using both NHANES data and estimated RCT data. We propose that PNS is the essential metric for assessing the impact of Diet Coke on obesity. Our results indicate that between 20% to 50% of individuals, especially those with poor dietary habits, are more likely to gain weight from Diet Coke. Conversely, in groups like young females with healthier diets, only a small proportion experience weight gain due to Diet Coke. These findings highlight the influence of individual lifestyle and potential hormonal factors on the varied effects of Diet Coke, providing a new framework for understanding its nutritional impacts on health.