Real-world time-series datasets are often multivariate with complex dynamics. Commonly-used high capacity architectures like recurrent- or attention-based sequential models have become popular. However, recent work demonstrates that simple univariate linear models can outperform those deep alternatives. In this paper, we investigate the capabilities of linear models for time-series forecasting and present Time-Series Mixer (TSMixer), an architecture designed by stacking multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). TSMixer is based on mixing operations along time and feature dimensions to extract information efficiently. On popular academic benchmarks, the simple-to-implement TSMixer is comparable to specialized state-of-the-art models that leverage the inductive biases of specific benchmarks. On the challenging and large scale M5 benchmark, a real-world retail dataset, TSMixer demonstrates superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art alternatives. Our results underline the importance of efficiently utilizing cross-variate and auxiliary information for improving the performance of time series forecasting. The design paradigms utilized in TSMixer are expected to open new horizons for deep learning-based time series forecasting.
翻译:实时时间序列数据集往往是具有复杂动态的多变量。通常使用的高容量结构,如经常性或关注型连续模型,已经变得流行。然而,最近的工作表明,简单的单向线性模型能够优于这些深层替代模型。在本文中,我们调查了时间序列预测线性模型的能力,以及目前由堆叠多层透视器设计的实时串流器(TSMixer)的架构。TSMixer基于同时和特征的混合操作,以高效提取信息。在流行的学术基准中,简单到执行的TSMixer可与利用具体基准的直导偏差的专门状态模型相比。在具有挑战性的大规模M5基准(即真实世界零售数据集)上,TSMixer展示了优于最先进的替代设备(MSM5)的超强性能。我们的结果强调了高效使用跨变量和辅助信息来改进时间序列预测绩效的重要性。在TSMMixer使用的设计范则有望打开新的视野,以便进行深层次的学习时间序列。</s>