As companies adopt increasingly experimentation-driven cultures, it is crucial to develop methods for understanding any potential unintended consequences of those experiments. We might have specific questions about those consequences (did a change increase or decrease gender representation equality among content creators?); we might also wonder whether if we have not yet considered the right question (that is, we don't know what we don't know). Hence we address the problem of unintended consequences in experimentation from two perspectives: namely, pre-specified vs. data-driven selection, of dimensions of interest. For a specified dimension, we introduce a statistic to measure deviation from equal representation (DER statistic), give its asymptotic distribution, and evaluate finite-sample performance. We explain how to use this statistic to search across large-scale experimentation systems to alert us to any extreme unintended consequences on group representation. We complement this methodology by discussing a search for heterogeneous treatment effects along a set of dimensions with causal trees, modified slightly for practicalities in our ecosystem, and used here as a way to dive deeper into experiments flagged by the DER statistic alerts. We introduce a method for simulating data that closely mimics observed data at LinkedIn, and evaluate the performance of DER statistics in simulations. Last, we give a case study from LinkedIn, and show how these methodologies empowered us to discover surprising and important insights about group representation. Code for replication is available in an appendix.
翻译:随着企业采用日益实验驱动的文化,必须制定方法来理解这些实验可能产生的任何意外后果。我们可能会对这些后果提出具体的问题(改变会增加或减少内容创作者之间的两性代表性平等?? );我们也许还会怀疑我们是否尚未考虑正确的问题(即我们不知道我们不知道什么 ) 。因此,我们从两个角度来解决实验中意外后果的问题:即预先指定对数据驱动的选择,从两个层面入手。对于一个特定层面,我们引入一个统计数据,以衡量对平等代表性的偏差(DER统计数据),提供其无症状分布,并评估有限抽样业绩。我们解释如何利用这一统计数据在大型实验系统中搜索任何对群体代表性的极端意外后果(即我们不知道什么 ) 。因此,我们通过讨论与因果树的一组维度一起寻找混合治疗效果,对生态系统的实际性稍作修改,并在此用作更深入地进行DER统计数据提示的实验。我们引入了一种方法来模拟数据,即近似近似观察到的数据,在Cregial Indegradudeal the the Last ex requirial ex requily ex requidustrual ex ex ex ex