We provide a composite version of Ville's theorem that an event has zero measure if and only if there exists a martingale which explodes to infinity when that event occurs. This is a classic result connecting measure-theoretic probability to the sequence-by-sequence game-theoretic probability, recently developed by Shafer and Vovk. Our extension of Ville's result involves appropriate composite generalizations of martingales and measure-zero events: these are respectively provided by ``e-processes'', and a new inverse-capital outer measure. We then develop a novel line-crossing inequality for sums of random variables which are only required to have a finite first moment, which we use to prove a composite version of the strong law of large numbers (SLLN). This allows us to show that violation of the SLLN is an event of outer measure zero in this setting and that our e-process explodes to infinity on every such violating sequence, while this is provably not achievable with a martingale.
翻译:我们提供了 Ville 理论的合成版本, 即如果并且只有在出现一个马丁格尔, 当该事件发生时爆炸到无限时, 事件才具有零度。 这是一个经典的结果, 它将测量- 理论概率连接到由 Shafer 和 Vovk 最近开发的按顺序顺序排列的游戏理论概率。 我们的 Ville 结果的延伸包含对马丁基和测量- 零事件的适当综合概括: 这些分别由“ 电子过程” 和新的反资本外测量提供 。 然后我们为随机变量的总和开发出一种新的线交叉不平等性, 随机变量的大小只需要有一定的第一次时间, 我们用它来证明大量强定律( SLLN ) 的综合版本。 这让我们可以证明, 违反 SLLN 是这一环境外测为零的事件, 我们的电子过程在每一个此类违反序列上都爆炸到无限度, 而这可以用马丁格尔 实现。