We assume that the forecast error follows a probability distribution which is symmetric and monotonically non-increasing on non-negative real numbers, and if there is a mismatch between observed and predicted value, then we suffer a loss. Under the assumptions, we solve a minimization problem with an asymmetric loss function. In addition, we give an inequality for the variance of the loss.
翻译:我们假设预测错误是在概率分布之后发生的,这种概率分布对称和单数对非负实际数字没有增加,如果观测值和预测值之间出现不匹配,那么我们就会遭受损失。根据这些假设,我们用不对称损失函数来解决最小化问题。此外,我们给损失差异提供不平等。