We present artificial neural networks as a feasible replacement for a mechanistic model of mosquito abundance. We develop a feed-forward neural network, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and a gated recurrent unit network. We evaluate the networks in their ability to replicate the spatiotemporal features of mosquito populations predicted by the mechanistic model, and discuss how augmenting the training data with time series that emphasize specific dynamical behaviors affects model performance. We conclude with an outlook on how such equation-free models may facilitate vector control or the estimation of disease risk at arbitrary spatial scales.
翻译:我们提出人造神经网络,作为蚊子丰度机械模型的可行替代。我们开发了饲料向前神经网络、长期短期记忆中经常神经网络和封闭的经常单元网络。我们评估了网络复制机械模型预测的蚊子人口时空特征的能力,并讨论了用强调具体动态行为的时间序列来增加培训数据如何影响模型的性能。我们最后审视了这种无方程式模型如何能够促进病媒控制或任意空间尺度的疾病风险估计。