Explaining the predictions of complex deep learning models, often referred to as black boxes, is critical in high-stakes domains like healthcare. However, post-hoc model explanations often are not understandable by clinicians and are difficult to integrate into clinical workflow. Further, while most explainable models use individual clinical variables as units of explanation, human understanding often rely on higher-level concepts or feature representations. In this paper, we propose a novel, self-explaining neural network for longitudinal in-hospital mortality prediction using domain-knowledge driven Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) organ-specific scores as the atomic units of explanation. We also design a novel procedure to quantitatively validate the model explanations against gold standard discharge diagnosis information of patients. Our results provide interesting insights into how each of the SOFA organ scores contribute to mortality at different timesteps within longitudinal patient trajectory.
翻译:解释复杂的深层次学习模型(通常称为黑盒)的预测,对于保健等高发领域至关重要,然而,临床医生往往无法理解并难以将其纳入临床工作流程。此外,尽管大多数可解释模型使用个别临床变量作为解释单位,但人类理解往往依赖更高层次的概念或特征表述。在本文件中,我们提议建立一个新型的自我解释神经网络,用于医院内纵向死亡率预测,使用由域知识驱动的序列器官衰竭评估(SOFA)特定器官计分作为原子解释单位。我们还设计了一种新的程序,对针对病人金标准排放诊断信息进行定量验证。我们的结果为人们提供了有趣的见解,说明每个SOFA器官在长度病人轨道上的不同时间分数是如何导致死亡率的。