Fast Sample Size Determination for Bayesian Equivalence Tests

Equivalence testing allows one to conclude that two characteristics are practically equivalent. We propose a framework for fast sample size determination with Bayesian equivalence tests facilitated via posterior probabilities. We assume that data are generated using statistical models with fixed parameters for the purposes of sample size determination. Our framework leverages an interval-based approach, which defines a distribution for the sample size to control the length of posterior highest density intervals (HDIs). We prove the normality of the limiting distribution for the sample size, and we consider the relationship between posterior HDI length and the statistical power of Bayesian equivalence tests. We introduce two novel approaches for estimating the distribution for the sample size, both of which are calibrated to align with targets for statistical power. Both approaches are much faster than traditional power calculations for Bayesian equivalence tests. Moreover, our method requires users to make fewer choices than traditional simulation-based methods for Bayesian sample size determination. It is therefore more accessible to users accustomed to frequentist methods.