A common assumption in causal inference is that random treatment assignment ensures that potential outcomes are independent of treatment, or in one word, unconfoundedness. This paper highlights that randomization and unconfoundedness are separate properties, and neither implies the other. A study with random treatment assignment does not have to be unconfounded, and a study with deterministic assignment can still be unconfounded. A corollary is that a propensity score is not the same thing as a treatment assignment probability. These facts should not be taken as arguments against randomization. The moral of this paper is that randomization is useful only when investigators know or can reconstruct the assignment process.
翻译:在因果关系推断中,一个常见的假设是,随机治疗分配确保潜在结果独立于治疗,或一言以蔽之、无根据。本文强调随机和无根据是独立的属性,也不意味着另一个属性。随机治疗分配的研究不一定没有依据,而具有确定性分配的研究仍然可能没有依据。推论是,倾向性分数与治疗性分配概率不同。这些事实不应被视为反对随机化的理由。本文的道德思想是,随机化只有在调查人员知道或能够重建任务分配过程时才有用。