环境变化背景下水资源需求机理及预测方法研究

项目名称： 环境变化背景下水资源需求机理及预测方法研究

项目编号： No.51309155

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 王小军

作者单位： 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 随着人口急剧增长和经济快速发展，水资源短缺对我国经济社会发展的制约效应日益明显，加之受到全球气候变暖影响，未来我国水资源形势将更加严峻。鉴于此，本研究针对我国水资源规划与管理中的需水预测难题，拟从水资源需求驱动因子识别、需水预测模型构建、需水预测合理性检验三个方面开展深入分析研究。研究在分析环境变化对工业、农业、生活、生态需水的影响机理上，探讨气候变化、人口增长、经济发展等外部环境变化对水资源需求驱动机制；结合未来各种外部环境要素变化过程，建立基于系统动力学、水资源供需理论、水价调节理论、用户承受能力等多因素影响的预测模型，仿真模拟不同水资源调控策略下未来水资源需求态势，提出基于用水弹性系数、用水结构信息熵等理论的需水合理性方法体系。以黄河中游能源重化工基地榆林市为例，分析水资源需求驱动要素，仿真模拟未来不同水平年需水动态变化过程，为促进能源基地经济社会协调发展提供重要参考。

中文关键词： 环境变化；需水预测；系统动力学；需水合理性检验；

英文摘要： Water shortage is an integral aspect of the natural condition and socio-economic development in China, this regarded as one of the most challenging environmental problem in the 21st century. This threatens food security, economic development and ecological balance. With the economic development, population growth and changing climate in the future, the gap between supply and demand will be more serious than ever before. Therefore, it is necessary to forecasting future water demand under changing environement, and make some necessary changes of the traditional way for water management under the future changing environment. In this research, we point out Water demand have the relationship with population growth, economic development and climate change, different factors have different effects on the water demand. We discussed the potentially impacts of environment change on water demand. Future Water demand have dynamic interactions among physical elements (natural runoff, groundwater recharge), environmental (water quality, ecosystem preservation) and socio-economic (population growth, water consumption, policy and management) aspects of water management in regional water resources system. Through the analysis of multi-feedbacks and nonlinear interactions among system elements, a complex system dynamics (SD) mode

英文关键词： Environment Change；Water Demand Forecasting；System Dynamics；Reasonable Analysis for Water Demand Forecasting；