基于可靠性理论的城市交通网络设计方法研究

项目名称： 基于可靠性理论的城市交通网络设计方法研究

项目编号： No.51208064

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 况爱武

作者单位： 长沙理工大学

项目金额： 28万元

中文摘要： 实际交通网络的供给和需求均存在很大的不确定性，本项目围绕如何在不确定环境下得到可靠性好的城市交通网络开展研究。项目运用不确定性理论分析交通供给和交通需求随机性的产生机理；采用概率论方法刻画交通供需随机性特征；运用条件风险价值理论探究出行方式、出行目的地、出行路径及停车选择等决策行为与路网可靠性之间的相互作用，采用多水平规划构建不确定交通供需共同作用下可靠性好的混合型城市交通网络设计模型，研究求解模型的快速高效算法，并开发相应的网络设计软件平台，为道路交通规划与建设管理提供决策依据。未来城市经济社会的发展将越来越依赖于稳定可靠的交通运输网络，本项目研究将有力地促进交通规划理论和方法的发展，对提高城市交通网络的可靠性、降低决策风险具有重要理论意义，研究成果具有广阔的应用前景。

中文关键词： 交通网络设计；可靠性理论；出行决策；组合模型；条件风险价值

英文摘要： For a real road network, traffic supply and traffic demand are always uncertain. This project aims to obtain a more reliable urban traffic network in an uncertain environment. In this project, we will apply the uncertainty theory to analyze the forming mechanisms of the variations in traffic supply and demand. The probability theory is used to describe the characteristics of random supplies and demands; the interaction mechanisms of the reliability requirements and the trip decision making behaviors, such as trip destination, trip mode, travel route and parking lot choice are predicted according to the theory of conditional value at risk. Based on this, some mixed urban traffic network design models with high reliability are established through the multiple-level programming method. We will also develop some efficient algorithms to solve the proposed models and design a universal software platform, which can be served as a useful tool for decision making on traffic planning and management. It can be predicted that the future development of urban economic and social will heavily depend on an efficient and reliable transportation network, this project will greatly promote the development of transportation planning theory and method to increase the reliability of road network, reduce the decision making risk and ha

英文关键词： Traffic network design problem；Reliability theory；Trip decision making；Combined model；Conditional value at risk