基于IIM模型的城市关联基础设施系统的脆弱性与弹性评价研究

项目名称： 基于IIM模型的城市关联基础设施系统的脆弱性与弹性评价研究

项目编号： No.71503194

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 徐文平

作者单位： 武汉科技大学

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 近年来，地震、火灾、洪水以及恐怖袭击等突发事件不断对城市关联基础设施系统造成冲击，破坏性巨大。因此，对突发事件扰动下的城市关联基础设施系统的脆弱性与弹性进行研究，并探讨相应的决策与控制策略显得非常重要。本课题拟通过对非正常投入产出模型（IIM）进行扩展与推广，运用不确定性数学模型、风险管理与效能评估等理论，对不确定条件下城市关联基础设施系统在不同类型扰动下的脆弱性与弹性进行研究，建立城市关联基础设施系统的脆弱性与弹性评价模型与框架体系，评价不同类型突发事件扰动在系统里蔓延过程中城市基础设施系统的脆弱性与弹性，提出应对策略，并采用网格技术与蒙特卡洛模拟算法进行实证分析与仿真研究。本课题的研究成果不仅能够丰富应急管理与风险管理的研究内容与方法，而且对于指导政府管理城市基础设施、提升其应对和处置突发事件的决策能力、强化应急管理评估机制的建设具有重要的理论与现实指导意义。

中文关键词： IIM；城市关联基础设施系统；突发事件扰动；脆弱性；弹性

英文摘要： In recent years, earthquake, fire, flood and terrorist attacks occurred often, and they affected urban interdependent infrastructure systems greatly. Therefore, it is very important to do so further research on the vulnerability and resilience of urban interdependent infrastructure systems, and to explore the corresponding control and management strategy. This project assesses the vulnerability and resilience of urban interdependent infrastructure systems mainly by expanding Inoperability Input-output Model (IIM) after unexpected events, using uncertainty theory, risk management and utility evaluation theory, establishes framework of the vulnerability and resilience of urban interdependent infrastructure systems. It discusses the vulnerability and resilience of emergency disturbance under uncertainty of urban interdependent infrastructure systems, finds the corresponding control strategies, and conducts a further empirical analysis and simulation research using grid technology and monte carlo method. By evaluating the vulnerability and resilience of urban interdependent infrastructure systems, we can further understand the effect of different types of perturbations for the urban interdependent infrastructure systems performance. This project will not only enriches the research methods and content of emergency management and risk management but also guides the government management of urban infrastructure and ability to respond to emergencies, provides a theoretical basis and methodological support for improvement the response and disposal of emergency decision-making ability, strengthen the construction of the emergency management protection of urban interdependent infrastructure systems.

英文关键词： Inoperability Input-output Model;Urban Interdependent Infrastructure Systems; Emergency disturbance ; Vulnerability ;Resilience