城市交通出行行为潜变量作用机理及整合模型研究

项目名称： 城市交通出行行为潜变量作用机理及整合模型研究

项目编号： No.51308569

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 陈坚

作者单位： 重庆交通大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 现有城市交通出行行为分析模型中仅考虑可直接观测的显变量影响，尚未系统研究外界与出行者内在潜变量的作用，使得模型的解释能力和精度受到质疑，难以定量描述出行行为心理决策机理。本项目从社会心理学的视角，基于TPB、EMB、SEM、ML/NL、MSL等模型方法，开展：1、交通出行行为"黑盒子"中潜变量的作用机理研究，分析不同人格特质的出行者在相同决策过程中的选择差异规律；2、构建潜变量与显变量共同作用的整合模型，揭示群体内不同类型潜变量间、相同类型潜变量间、各潜变量与其对应测量变量间相互作用定量关系及不同群体间相同关系路径系数差异程度，探索各潜变量对整合模型结果影响的灵敏度；3、设计潜变量测度与整合模型标定一体化算法，提出各样本量的最优模拟次数推荐值，引入偏度的概念用以计算潜变量不同测度方式的效果差异。研究成果将完善与丰富交通出行行为理论，为城市交通规划、管理等提供更准确的分析方法。

中文关键词： 出行行为；潜变量；作用机理；黑盒子；整合模型

英文摘要： The existing models of urban travel behavior analysis considered only the influence of manifest variables (MV) which can be directly observed, but did not systematically consider the role of latent variables (LV) in external environment and internal of travelers. Therefore the expression ability and accuracy of existing models were questioned, and it was difficult to quantitatively describe the psychological decision-making mechanism. From the perspective of social psychology, this project was conducted based on the models and methods of TPB, EMB, SEM, ML/NL, MSL and etc. The main contents include: 1. The influence mechanism of latent variables in the "black box" of travel behavior was studied, and then the law of choice difference in the same decision process that made by travelers with different personality traits was analyzed. 2. The integrative model affected by both LV and MV was built. The interactive quantitative relationship between the different types of LV, between the same type of LV, and between different types of LV and their corresponding measurement variables in the same group was revealed. The different degree of path coefficient of the same relationship among different groups was revealed. The sensitivity of different types of LV which affect travel choices result of integrative model was explor

英文关键词： Travel Behavior；Latent Variables；Function Mechanism；Black Box；Integrative Model