高密度航路网络交通拥挤风险管控方法研究

项目名称： 高密度航路网络交通拥挤风险管控方法研究

项目编号： No.71301074

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 田文

作者单位： 南京航空航天大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 大区域机场群建设形成高密度航路网络，成为引发交通拥挤、飞行矛盾加剧、航班延误增加的新焦点。本课题以高密度航路网络交通拥挤问题为研究对象，从风险管理全新角度出发，为准确把握航路网络交通拥挤的演变规律、客观评价交通拥挤风险的作用程度、精确实施风险管控策略构建较为系统、科学的理论基础与方法体系。首先基于仿真分析方法刻画航空器群体行为特征，基于聚合流理论建立航路网络交通流传播模型，提取高密度航路网络交通流传播规律，揭示交通拥挤自组织演化机理。然后利用模式识别方法分析单一空域单元交通流模式下的微观风险要素及其耦合作用机理，提取航路网络全局风险触发要素，建立风险损失评价方法，量化交通拥挤的潜在危害性。最后针对高风险航路系统建立多主体交通流协同优化模型，利用交通流序参量控制方法，实现交通拥挤风险的成本控制、安全控制和时间控制，为解决我国大区域机场群航路网络拥挤问题、提升运行保障能力提供理论与方法参考。

中文关键词： 空中交通管理；高密度航路网络；交通拥挤；演化机理；风险管控

英文摘要： The construction of large regional airport group forms a high-density route network, to become the new focus leading to traffic congestion, flight intensified conflicts,sevirious flight delays increasing. Subject to the traffic congestion problem caused by a high-density route network, this study aims to establish a systematic, scientific theoretical foundation and methodology from a new perspective of risk management, in order to accurately grasp the evolution of the routes network traffic congestion, to realize an objective assessment of the role of the degree of traffic congestion risk and accurate implementation of risk management and control strategies. First, the aircraft group behavior characteristics are extracted based on simulation analysis method, and a route network traffic flow propagation model are established based on the aggregated flow theory, in order to extract high-density routes network traffic flow propagation and reveal heavy traffic self-organization evolution mechanism.Then, the microscopic risk factors and their coupling mechanism of the single airspace unit traffic flow mode are analyzed utilizing pattern recognition methods, the global risk elements of the route network are extracted, and a the risk losses evaluation method is built, in order to quantify the potential dangers of hea

英文关键词： air traffic management；high density route network；traffic congestion；evolution mechanism；risk management and control