项目名称: 网络模型应用于评价流动人口引发边境地区输入性疟疾的风险研究
项目编号: No.81502858
项目类型: 青年科学基金项目
立项/批准年度: 2016
项目学科: 医药、卫生
项目作者: 夏尚
作者单位: 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所
项目金额: 18万元
中文摘要: 我国已进入疟疾消除阶段,及时发现传染源并有效阻断其可能造成的继发传播是实现消除目标的关键。本项目针对我国边境地区人口流动引起输入性疟疾病例逐年增多的问题,提出一种基于网络的人口流动模拟方法,阐明边境地区疟疾传播过程中流动人口的作用机制。首先,我们将综合分析研究区域内人口、地理、社会和经济等因素及相互间的关系,构建一个人口流动网络,利用重力吸引模型模拟人口流动的时空分布机制。其次,基于疾病传播动力学模型推演研究区域疟疾的时空传播方式,进而评估人口流动导致输入性疟疾及其可能引发本地继发传播的风险。最后,在云南省中缅边境地区进行实证研究,以验证本项目建立的模型及其评价结果,为疟疾消除阶段的防控策略制定提供理论及实践基础。
中文关键词: 输入性疟疾;流动人口;风险评估;网络模型
英文摘要: In order to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in China, it is of crucial importance to monitor the source of infection timely and cut off the possible secondary transmission effectively. This project focuses on the problem of human movement and the consequent imported malaria in China’s border areas. Specifically, we first proposes a geospatial human movement network based on the demographic, social and economic conditions of a region, and then, utilize the principles of gravity law to explore the temporal-spatial patterns of human movement. Secondly, we develop a modified disease transmission dynamics model to evaluate the risk of imported malaria and the possible followed secondary local transmission. Finally, we will carry out a series of empirical studies at the China-Myanmar border areas of Yunnan province, aiming to test and validate our proposed models and methods. Through this project, we can provide a theoretical and practical basis for the development of intervention strategies at the current malaria elimination stage in China.
英文关键词: Imported malaria;Human movement;Risk evaluation;Network-based modeling