水文事件重现期与设计值计算方法研究

项目名称： 水文事件重现期与设计值计算方法研究

项目编号： No.51479171

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 宋松柏

作者单位： 西北农林科技大学

项目金额： 84万元

中文摘要： 重现期是确定水利水电工程设计规模和管理的设计标准，事关工程建设经济合理和安全可靠运行。本项目拟采用调查分析、数学建模和计算机仿真相结合的综合研究方法，以渭河流域洪水、暴雨和径流等序列为研究对象，在吸收国内外相关最新研究成果的基础上，采用循环事件、更新过程等原理，选用皮尔逊-III型和广义极值分布，研究不同选样下独立同分布部分历时序列重现期和设计值计算方法，揭示常见水文资料选样下重现期间的关系，提出相应重现期的转换方法；研究平稳独立、平稳非独立和非平稳独立单事件与游程事件重现期和设计值计算方法，揭示平稳与非平稳事件重现期特性的有机关系。在此基础上，嵌入非平稳变量，研究多变量重现期和设计值计算方法。本研究将促进水文学与数理统计学、计算数学等学科的交叉渗透，研究成果可为流域水利工程规划设计与管理、水资源规划利用、生态环境建设以及抗旱减灾提供重要的理论依据和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 重现期；设计值；平稳；非平稳；水文事件

英文摘要： Return period is one of the design criteria for detrmining water resouces project size and management, it is important to ecnomical and safety operation of these projects. In this proposal, based on the new research findings related to return period of hydrological events, and recurrence events and renewal process and probability and statistitics methods, a comprehensive research method combined investigation, mathematical modelling and computer simulation is used to develop the return period and design values of some common stationary and nonstationary hydroloical events(floods, rainstorms and steamflows et al) following Pearson type III and Generalized extreme distribution in Wehe watershed. The research content includes (1) Return period and design values of duration sereis for common hydrological samplings; (2) Return period and design values of single and run events for staionary independence, staionary dependence and nonstaionary independence trials. We expect to reveal the realtionship of return period between staionary and nonstaionary, and present a tranformation expression of return period among common hydrological samplings; (3)Condidering single nonsationay variate, multivate return period expression is derivated. The results and finding in this research may be expected to promote crossing and penetration of among hydrology, mathematic statistics and compter calculation. They also can provied some theroies and technical support for water resouces engineering planning and designing and management, ecological enviroment protection and disaster prevention.

英文关键词： Return period;Design Value;Stationary;Non-stationary;Hydrolgical Events