气候变化下情景驱动的雨水系统性能评估与设计方法研究

项目名称： 气候变化下情景驱动的雨水系统性能评估与设计方法研究

项目编号： No.51208001

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 汪明明

作者单位： 安徽工业大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 全球气候变化给城镇给排水系统规划设计和雨洪水管理带来挑战。应对气候变化的新排水系统规划设计理论与方法，亟待深入研究。情景驱动是处理气候变化不确定性的有效策略。本项目针对适应气候变化的雨水系统设计与评估、系统应用等关键问题进行研究。首先，利用统计方法研究降雨量资料、气候变化及未来情景构建问题；其次，从系统特征出发，选用超载率、洪灾率、单位面积洪水体积作为性能评估指标，耦合瞬时单位线理论和SWMM模型，分别研究气候变化下不同驱动因子（雨量、暴雨强度、雨峰位置、不透水面积比）变化情景对雨水系统性能的影响规律，并对不同设计方法情景（不考虑气候变化的传统设计；考虑气候变化的终期设计、阶段设计、大小双系统设计、低影响开发设计）进行模拟评估与对比分析。最后，以长江下游区合肥、南京等地集水区为例，对评估和设计方法进行应用和验证。本项目研究将为应对气候变化的新城市排水系统规划设计和雨洪水管理提供参考。

中文关键词： 情景驱动；评估模型；雨水排水系统；气候变化；设计

英文摘要： Global climate change brings the challenges to urban drainage system planning & design as well as stormwater management. It is urgent to study the theory and methods of new drainage system planning & design. The scenario-driven planning is an effective strategy to manage climate change uncertainty. This project focuses on the key issues of the design and evaluation of stormwater system adapt to climate change, and system application. First, study of climate change scenarios and statistical analysis of trends of rainfall data. Next, impact modeling with different scenarios of drivers (rainfall, intensity, intensity peak position, impervious ratio) towards the performance of stormwater system under climate change, using surcharge degree, flooding degree, flood volume per unit area from system hydraulic characteristics as performance evaluation indexes; simulation, evaluation and comparative analysis of different design approach scenarios (traditional design without considering climate change; the final-stage design, multi-stage design, dual systems design, low impact development design with considering climate change) using instantaneous unit hydrograph theory and SWMM. Finally, new urban catchments of typical local flooding cities such as Hefei, Nanjing in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River will act as case s

英文关键词： Scenario-driven；assessment model；stormwater drainage system；climate change；design